Whose voters turn out on November 3 is the deciding factor in the 2020 election. Voter turn out depends on several factors. More than anything else, it is the voter motivation that plays a key role. In this election, both Republicans and Democrats have a higher motivational level. Will this motivation continue to inspire voters until November 3?
Except for 1876, when voter turnout was the highest 81.83%, during the last 4 Presidential election cycle, it has varied from 50.3% to 57.7 percent.
Until October 20, 2020, more than 33 million Americans or about 21% have already cast their ballots this year.
Democrats appear to be on the victory path in Congressional, Senate, and Presidential races. In Congressional District, they may increase their majority from 232 to 240 plus. They hope to increase their number from 45 to 51 with two independents in the Senate. They also maintain a substantial lead in Presidential polls.
But anything is possible in Senate and Presidential races. In Senate, Arizona, Michigan, Iowa, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Texas would decide their destiny.
The Presidential election would either be very close or a comfortable victory for the Democrats. Democrats have solid 183 electoral votes. They come from the following states. WA (12), OR (7), CA (55), Il (20). NY, 29), VT (3), MA, (11), RI (4), CT (7), NJ (14), DE (3), MD (10, DC 3). Me (4), HI (4). Their 27 likely votes come from three states Co (9), NM (5), VA (13)
If they could capture 60 votes from the following 78 electoral college members in seven states, they are the winners, NV (6), AZ (11), MN (10, WI (10, MI (16(, PA (20), NH (4)
On the other hand, the Republicans have 76 sold electoral college members from the following states. ID (4), WY (3), ND (3) SD (3), NE (5), OK (7), AR (6), LA (8), MS (6), AL (9), TN (11, KY (8) WV (5. With 49 likely votes from SC (9), IN (11), MO (10), KS (6), UT (5), MT (3), AK (3), their tally would be 125. Texas is leaning towards Trump with its 38 votes, and it would make their total 183. To capture the White House, they have to win the four tossup states and at least one from states leaning towards the Democrat.
The tossup states of IA (6), OH (18), GA (16), FL (29) have 85 votes. In all these states, the two parties are either even or show a Biden lead by a narrow margin.
Iowa has a population of 3.2 million, with 1,543,045 males and 1,564,081 female. There are 21,036 more women than men in the state, which is 0.68% of the total population. The racial composition of Iowa is:
White: 90.28%, Black or African American: 3.51%, Asian: 2.40%, Two or more races: 2.10%, Other race: 1.25%, Native American: 0.37% and Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander: 0.10%
69.80 or 1,658,000 are registered voters. Forty-one percent are Republicans, and forty percent, Democrats, and 19 percent are independent. The race is tough, and a few thousand votes may determine the outcome. Muslim votes from Somalian, Bosnian, Kosovan, and South and Middle Eastern communities would be crucial for either candidate. If Democrats show up with their existing strength and if the so-far marginalized communities cast their vote over 65 percent, Biden can carry this state.
Florida has a population of 21.5 million. There are 446,725 more women than men in the state, which is 2.25% of the total population. According to the 2010 census, the racial distributions are as follows; 77.3% White (53.5% Non-Hispanic White), 16.9% African American (includes Afro-Caribbeans), 2.9% Asian American, and 0.5% Native American. 25.6% of the population are Hispanics or Latino (of any race). Florida has one of the largest African-American communities in the US and has the second-highest Latino population on the East Coast outside of New York state.
Its ethnic Asian population has increased since the late 1990s; most are South Asians, Filipinos, Vietnamese, ethnic Chinese. The state has some federally recognized American Indian tribes, such as the Seminoles in the state’s southeastern part; 56% or 9,435,000 are voters. There currently are 36% registered Democrats and 37% registered Republicans in the state, with 26% who have no party affiliation. Every Muslim vote in the state would influence the outcome. A 60 percent turnout of Muslim voters with block voting can give Florida to either candidate. In 2000, Muslim votes helped Bush to carry the election. History might repeat itself if Biden can convince them that he is their candidate.
Georgia has a population of 10.7 million, with 51 .4 percent women. According to 2018 US Census Bureau estimates, 58.3% are White (52.2% Non-Hispanic White and 6.0% Hispanic White), 31.6% Black or African American, 4.2% Asian, 2.9%, some other Race, 0.3% Native American and Alaskan Native, 0.1% Pacific Islander and 2.7% from two or more races.
61.70% or 4,840,000, are registered. The Republicans and the Democrats have 41 percent each registered voters with 18 percent independents. In this state, Muslim votes, if organized and cast over 60 percent, would be crucial.
Ohio has a population of 11.7 million. The median age is approximately 39.3 years of age. When it comes to females’ ratio to males, Ohio has 51.1% females and 48.9% males. White are 80%, Hispanic 3.3%, Black 12.3%, Asian 1.9%, Mixed 2.2% and 1 Other .3%
68.30% are registered voters. The has Republicans with 42% lead the Democrats by 2 percent in voter registration. Eighteen percent are independents. If Democrats turn out in large numbers and outperform the Republicans in urban and suburban areas, Trump might lose. Muslim voters will play a crucial role if they decide to cast their votes from Somali, Middle Eastern, and South Asian communities.