Ruth Bader Ginsberg’s death raises stakes in 14 Senate races in November 2020. President is sure to announce her replacement before the election, and Mitch McConnell is ready to approve if there is no major revolt in his party.
If the Senate delays the next Supreme Court Justice selection after the November election, then the Senate races’ outcome will determine the nation’s future. Currently, five of the eight justices are conservatives.
The Senate races will decide if the Republicans retain their majority or the Democrats take it over. There are the following scenarios.
Trump wins Presidency and Republicans win Senate.
Trump loses, and Republicans retain Senate.
Biden wins, and Democrats capture Senate.
Biden wins, and Republicans and Democrats have 50 senators each
Trump wins, and Republicans and Democrats have 50 senators each.
In scenarios one and five, the next Justice will come from the conservative camp, and in three and four, the Democrats will choose the Justice. In case Trump loses and Republicans win Senate, a major battle will take place over the nomination. Regardless of the party that controls the Senate, the country will see monumental changes on immigration, abortion, education, race relations, economy, and the coming Administration’s health care policies. The foreign policy will also witness a significant overhaul depending on the condition of the U.S. economy.
The Senate races that are in play are Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Georgia, Montana, Michigan, Georgia, Texas, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Alaska
Sen. Doug Jones (D) won in 2017 against Roy Moore. It is one of the most pro-Trump states in the nation, and Jones voted to convict Trump on both impeachment counts. He is likely to lose the seat.
Former astronaut and current gun-control activist Mark Kelly is the Democrats’ strongest candidate of 2020 against Sen. Martha McSally (R). He is leading in most major recent polls. Arizona also is a battleground presidential state.
John Hickenlooper (D) may unseat Sen. Cory Gardner (R). Republican outside groups are spending heavily, but Hickenlooper is still a popular former governor.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is behind former state senator and Iraq war veteran Cal Cunningham (D) by nine recent polls. Its a toss-up race
Sen. Susan Collins (R) faces Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon, who has been outraising Collins and hasn’t made any significant stumbles. Gideon is up by five points. It is a toss-up race.
Joni Ernst (R) officially is against Democratic real estate executive Theresa Greenfield. It is a tight race.
Sen. David Perdue (R) and Democrat Jon Ossoff are running in this close race. Ossoff is 33, and seven years younger than the youngest U.S. senator. Democrats may have a chance here.
Steve Bullock (D), an outgoing, popular two-term governor, is trying to unseat Steve Daines (R), a first-term senator. It is a close race and toss-up.
Republican candidate John James, an Iraq War veteran and conservative media celebrity, is against Sen. Gary Peters (D) and behind polls despite James’s strong fundraising. Democrats will retain this seat.
Georgia’s special election
All the candidates are on the ballot in this race, including Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R), Rep. Douglas A. Collins (R), and Atlanta pastor Raphael Warnock. If no one gets 50 percent that the top two will have a January runoff.
Democrats nominated former congressional candidate and Air Force veteran MJ Hegar to take out Sen. John Cornyn (R). If Latino Democrats and young voters come out to vote, Cornyn may lose.
Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey O. Graham (R) is trying to retain his seat against Democrat Jaime Harrison. It’s a close race as both have 47 percent voters on their side.
Democrat Amy McGrath wants to unseat Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). McConnell has a five-point lead over McGrath, But independent voters back McGrath 46 points to 40 points.
Democrats support independent Al Gross, a doctor and fisherman with money of his own to spend, to unseat Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), who narrowly beat a well-known Democrat six years ago.
This race between Republican Roger Marshall and Democrat Barbara Bollier may become competitive as there is only a seven-point difference. Bollier is a former Republican.